Coal demand of Vietnam: forecast to 2035

According to experts' calculations, compared to the world per capita, Vietnam's coal demand by 2030 is higher, but compared to many countries, it is still much lower, especially compared to Taiwan and South Korea. China, Australia, Japan and some countries rich in coal resources.

According to the forecasts in the adjusted master plan "Vietnam coal industry development planning to 2020, with consideration of prospects until 2030" (approved under the Prime Minister's Decision No. 403/2016 / QD-TTg dated March 14, 2016. Government - hereinafter referred to as QH 403/2016) Vietnam's coal demand, especially coal demand for electricity production is increasing. Specifically (million tons): 2020: 86.4 (for electricity 64.1); 2025: 121.5 (for electricity 96.5); 2030: 156.6 (for electricity 131.1) 

According to the latest update, the demand for coal for electricity will still increase, but decrease compared to the forecast in the above planning403 / 2016. Accordingly, the demand for coal in general is expected to be (million tons): 2020: 81.3 (for electricity 59.5); 2025: 110.9 (for electricity 86.0); 2030: 144.7 (for electricity 119.4) and in 2035: 153.1 (for electricity 127.5). You can see a detailed chart of coal demand in Figure 1.

Thus, by 2030 - 2035, the demand for coal for electricity will be 3 times higher than that of 2017.

Dự báo nhu cầu than đá tại Việt Nam

T

Category

2020

2025

2030

2035

A

Thermal

59.470

86.008

119.368

127.502

B

Cement

5.719

6.604

6.676

6.676

C

Metallurgical

5.276

7.189

7.189

7.189

D

Fertilizers, chemicals

5.023

5.023

5.023

5.023

F

Others

5.796

6.092

6.403

6.729

 

Total

81.285

110.916

144.658

153.119

Figure 1. Summary of domestic coal demand forecasting.

The above increasing coal demand of Vietnam in general, as well as for electricity production in particular is necessary and completely acceptable for a developing country in all aspects: Electricity demand, level using coal, the role of coal in ensuring energy security of our country, as well as the suitability of the development trend of coal, coal-fired thermal power in the world, especially regional countries.

For example, according to the 2018 document, global coal consumption increased by 1.4% compared to 2017 (mainly for electricity generation), double the average growth rate of 10 years 2007 - 2017 (0.7% / year). The highest increases were India (up 36 million TOes) and China (up 16 million toes). Global coal production increased by 162 million TOes, corresponding to an increase of 4.3% (3.3 times the average increase in the 10 years 2007-2017), of which China had the highest increase (82 million Toe) and Indonesia. second (up 51 million Toe).

Coal thermal power still holds the highest position in the world electricity industry, accounting for 38% and contributes 31% to the net growth of global electricity output (renewable energy contributes 33% and natural gas. 25%).

In 2019, the world coal consumption decreased by 0.5% compared to 2018, mainly due to the decrease in North America 14.4%, Europe 12.1%, but in other regions and many countries still increase.

Specifically, Central and South America 3.7%, Africa 1.5%, Asia - Pacific 2.2%, China 2.3%, Indonesia 20.0%, Philippines 6.6%, India 0 , 3%, etc...

Khai thác than đá tại Ấn ĐộCoal mining in India

World coal output in 2019 reached 8,103 million tons, up 1.5%, higher than the average growth rate in the 2008-2018 period of 1.4% / year. Countries with a high coal output of over 100 million tons include (million tons): China: 3,827 (up 4.8% compared to 2018), India: 756 (down 1.6%), US: 640 (down 6.6%), Indonesia: 614 (11.2% increase), Australia: 507 (4.5%), Russia: 439 (no increase), South Africa: 254 (no increase), Germany 134 (20% decrease) ), Kazakhstan: 115 (down 2.5%), Poland 112 (down 8.2%).

Particularly, Canada - one of the three countries that initiated the establishment of the "Coalition against the use of coal" in 2019, still exploits coal with an output of more than 50 million tons, down only 4 million tons compared to 2018.

World coal power output in 2019, though decreasing by more than 2.6% compared to 2018, is still the source of electricity with the highest proportion: 36.4% of total electricity output, far exceeding gas power at 23.3 %.

In 2019, Vietnam's per capita coal consumption is 21.43 EJ / person, very low compared to many countries in the world and the region such as (EJ / person): Kazakhstan (90.03), Australia (70, 61), Taiwan (68.54), Korea (67.16), South Africa (65.05), Czech (56.0), Poland (50.38), Japan (38.71), Hong Kong (35.0), USA (34.11)  . While CO2 emissions from the energy sector per capita in 2019 (tons / person): Australia 17.0, the US 15.09, Kazakhstan 12.93, Hong Kong 12.75, South Korea 12.47, Taiwan 11.72, Russia 10.5, Czech 9.22, Japan 8.86, Germany 8.19, South Africa 8.17, Poland 8.02, China 6.85, and Vietnam 2 , 96.

By 2030 , Vietnam's coal demand is forecasted to be about 80.4 million Toe, per capita of about 0.73 Toe / person (corresponding to a population at that time forecasted to be 110 million people).

According to forecasts in the normal scenario of JEEI Outlook 2018 (October 2017) to 2030, the world's per capita coal demand (Toe / person) is: 0.5; of which China: 1.48; Japan: 0.93; Korea: 1.74; Taiwan: 1.75; Malaysia: 0.86; Thailand: 0.35; America: 0.78; Australia: 1.18.

Thus, compared to the world per capita, Vietnam's coal demand by 2030 is higher, but compared with many countries, it is still much lower, especially compared to Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Australia. , Japan and some countries rich in coal resources.

Thuan Hai Joint Stock Company

Address:  Thuan Hai Building, Lot Vb.22a, Street 24, Tan Thuan Export Processing Zone, Tan Thuan Dong Ward, District 7, City. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Hotline:  (+84) 28 36 226 880

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>>> Read the article: Why should we use coal in industry?

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